Toch wordt de europesche belastingbetaler vanalles voorgehouden, behalve de waarheid !
Greece is insolvent." This sentence can be read from the first of the fourteen pages that make up the report Debt Restructuring: Ramifications for the Euro Area, published in June 2011 and written by Anne Sibert, head of economic department of Birkbeck College. What is surprising is the applicant: the European Parliament. One month prior to the approval of the second rescue plan, therefore, Brussels was aware of what happened. The document Sibert, in fact, leaves little room for optimism, and criticizes the EU. "Despite the insistence of members of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank and European politicians to say the opposite," says the economist, Greece will fail before 2013. But not only. The paper also anticipates the European Council of 21 July, when it was introduced the Private Sector Involvement (PSI), which is the direct involvement of private creditors in debt restructuring Hellenic. Just what we now ran aground on the discussion between banks and the government of Lucas Papademos.
Debt restructuring, legal problems, effects of bankruptcy on European trade, bank contagion. The analysis is as clear as anticipatory. The Sibert, in no uncertain terms, explain what will happen to Greece. And it does so in great detail, also trying to explain how Europe could set up a defensive system. Since it is insolvent, Athens will have to declare default, bankruptcy, then, before the fund-saving States Permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) comes into operation. The reference is still the original ESMA Sibert, 2013, but as we have seen over the past six months, Brussels ahead of the times a year, claiming to want to turn the ESM in July 2012. The legitimate question is, reading this document, only one: why have not listened to Sibert?
The text of the economist, along with many of the same content paper was presented at a hearing of the then ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Parliament. It was June 30, 2011 , a month before the second bailout Athens. Trichet said several times that we must avoid the default of Greece, both full and selective. Yet, the French central banker has before him several economists, whose services have been expressly requested by the European Parliament, who are pointing out that Athens can no longer do anything. They spend weeks, worsens the situation and get the introduction of the PSI. In this way, the EU wants to share with the private creditors, ie banks and investment funds, the losses of any default in Athens. The first idea is to apply a haircut, that is, a devaluation of the nominal value of bonds held in the portfolio of 21 percent. Yet the public continues to disprove this hypothesis. "Greece will not fail", firmly reiterates a number of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker on several occasions. However, the situation does not improve. Indeed, more and more spins.
On 21 October, during yet another mission of the International Monetary Fund, the technicians confirm what will happen. The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) leaves no room for different interpretations. The greek debt, about 365 billion euros, has already exceeded 165% of the gross domestic product without a full adoption of the IMF program could exceed 186% in 2013. Private creditors, led by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), it requires more effort, a haircut of 50 percent. Only in this way, officials said the IMF, one can expect that the debt can come back in Hellenic 120% share of GDP at the end of 2020. Alternatively, you can apply a haircut of 60%, which would bring the debt / GDP ratio to 110% at the same time period.
Both the ECB and the EU have long known what the situation is to Greece. In fact, going backwards, the first time that the Sibert said his Athens, at the request of the European Parliament, was June 5, 2010. "Greece is likely to become insolvent, you have to do everything possible to avoid infection and must act quickly, without fear of clearly explain the situation," he wrote in a paper that still can be found in the archives of the EU Parliament. Yet, even then, the EU did nothing.
Athens is now closer to the abyss. The European Commission, together with the IMF and the ECB, has sent its engineers to Greece to try to find a solution to what probably will happen. The next fact a bond expires March 20 Hellenic value of 14.4 billion euros. Must be repaid and, according to figures from the DSA of the IMF, in the homes of the Treasury in October there were 11 billion euros. Too few to repay its obligation. To make matters worse there is stalemate between the government and IIF. Today, the table will resume after a pause for reflection lasted 4 days. The fear is that there is no dish on how to avoid the default, but as content.
Leggi il resto: http://www.linkiesta.it/la-grecia-e-fallita-e-l-europa-lo-sa-da-giugno#ixzz1jnMVOt5X